New Delhi, September 1
After deficient rains in August, monsoon rains are expected to be “above normal” in September. However, many areas of Northwest and Northeast India are expected to get below normal rains in the last month of the June-September season, IMD DG Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said on Wednesday.
Rains are expected to continue for today over Northwest, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Western UP, and decrease thereafter. Peninsular India and parts of East, like Bihar, are expected to get above normal rain. It is expected that the June-September rains will end in the lower end of normal and the current deficiency of 9 per cent would reduce, Mohapatra said.
Regarding the message to farmers due to the deficiency and expected crop damage in some parts, Mohapatra said the IMD would “regularly update the forecast”.
While giving reasons for deficient rains in August like cloudiness being suppressed and the Bay of Bengal not getting remnant of typhoons from the eastern sides, Mohapatra admitted that the IMD was not able to predict deficient rains during August in several parts, including Gujarat and Odisha, currently the most affected parts of the country.
Currently, neutral ENSO conditions are prevailing; however, there is an increased possibility of La Nina emerging towards the end of September /beginning of October.
Suffering from uneven monsoon rains in August, while eastern parts of India like Bihar and Assam struggled with floods and swelling rivers, plains of the Northwest, including Punjab, Haryana and Delhi, registered a deficiency ranging between 32 and 56 per cent this month, despite heavy rains on the last day of August.
Across eastern India, hundreds of thousands of people have suffered due to incessant rains. Flood waters have submerged nearly 70 per cent of the Kaziranga National Park and Tiger Reserve (KNPTR) in Assam, forcing wild animals to move to higher grounds. Incessant downpours have also resulted in Brahmaputra and other rivers bursting their banks in Assam and Bihar.
On the other side, deficient rains in Northwest and Central India have sent worrying signals to farmers in the middle of the paddy season. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Maharashtra, Telangana, Goa and Karnataka in Central and Peninsular India; and Nagaland and Manipur in the Northeast have all received deficient rains.
The IMD has forecast enhancement of rainfall activity over South Central and Peninsular India.
Mohapatra said, “The rainfall averaged over the country as a whole during September is most likely to be above normal (>110 per cent of long period average (LPA)). The LPA of rainfall during September based on the data of 1961-2010 is about 170 mm. Considering the expected above-normal rainfall activity during September, the current deficiency of 9 per cent in seasonal rainfall during June to August is very likely to reduce and accumulated seasonal rainfall from June 1 to September 30 is very likely to be around lower end of the normal.”
