New Delhi, July 11
Giving rise to fresh worries about the Covid-19 pandemic rearing its head again, the R-factor, which indicates the speed at which the infection is spreading in the country, has risen recently leading to a sluggish pace in the decline of active cases while Kerala and northeast states have emerged as regions of concern.
This is despite the nationwide tally of new cases remaining low, revealed an analysis by researchers at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai.
The R-factor has increased slightly to 0.88 in June-end after being at its lowest-ever value of 0.78 from mid-May till late last month, it showed.
This comes amid the unlocking process by many states trying to restore a semblance of normalcy as the deadly second wave, which infected lakhs and killed thousands during its peak in April-May, shows signs of ebbing.
Sitabhra Sinha, who led the team of researchers, said the ‘R’ for India is still below one, so the number of active cases is decreasing at a much slower rate. The same trend of slowing down in the rate of decline in active cases is also seen in many states.
“Kerala showed a brief spike in cases and its R continues to hover close to 1. The northeast region is of great concern. Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and possibly Tripura are showing a rise in the number of cases,” Sinha pointed out.
When the second wave of the Covid-19 infection was at its peak, the overall R-value in the country was estimated to be 1.37 between March 9 to April 21. It declined to 1.18 between April 24 to May 1 and then to 1.10 between April 29 to May 7, according to the analysis.
Between May 9 and 11, the R-value was estimated to be around 0.98. It then to 0.82 from May 14 to May 30. The R-value was 0.78 from May 15 to June 26 and 0.88 from June 20 to July 7.
In Kerala, the R-value is estimated to be around 1.10. As for the northeastern states, the R for Manipur is 1.07, Meghalaya 0.92, Tripura 1.15, Mizoram 0.86, Arunachal Pradesh 1.14, Sikkim 0.88, Assam 0.86.
