New Delhi, May 11: After a month of high-octane, heavily acrimonious election campaign, Karnataka will vote on Saturday to take a pick among the ruling Congress and those hoping to replace it — BJP and JD-S. At the same time, their choice will also set in motion the plans of all political parties — national and regional — for the 2019 Lok Sabha.
Parties are claiming clear victories but observers are predicting a close call and perhaps a hung Assembly. Now, whether star campaigner Prime Minister Narendra Modi manages to save the day for the BJP or May 15 throws up other options, Karnataka outcome will have ramifications across the country.
Struggling with perceptions about an urban-rural division and unrest in key vote banks — Dalits and farmers — the BJP can heave a sigh of relief if it makes it to the centrestage.
Karnataka will go down as the first real test of personalities between Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi. A saffron win will reconfirm Modi’s invincibility and also silence voices in allies, friendly and non-friendly, about the BJP’s individual standing ability to win.
NDA allies are keeping a close watch on May 15 and speculation is that a couple may jump the ship in case of turbulence in Karnataka. Even if they don’t, they can certainly make life difficult for BJP chief Amit Shah when they sit across the negotiating table before the 2019 polls.
Congress managing to retain Karnataka will come as a shot in the arm for the party gasping for breath in the wake of the NaMo Tsunami since 2014. It would confirm incumbent Siddaramaiah’s supremacy as Karnataka strongman and boost Rahul Gandhi’s national credentials, which have taken a deep beating ever since the BJP swept the country.
However, the most interesting scenario would be if former PM HD Deve Gowda-led JD-S manages to pull the feat. Both parties — BJP and JD-S — vehemently deny any “pre-poll understanding” or the possibility of their getting together, post-poll. But politics is an art of possibilities and is known to make strange bedfellows.
This apart, the JD-S doing well in Karnataka will boost the hopes of those trying to put together an anti-BJP, anti-Congress front. Deve Gowda has been a PM and who knows what Karnataka throws up for him and his party. But a regional party doing well will re-affirm hopes of other regional players — TMC, SP, BSP, BJD et al. And for the BJP, it would become twice as hard to pull the next three big ones lined up — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.
