New Delhi, March 10
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi predicted, it was an early Holi for the BJP today which played the 4/5 Assembly sweep as an approval for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his personal popularity and “pro-poor, pro-people” policies and the pitch used in these elections— “benefits of a double-engine government”.
Also counted as a “pro-incumbency and support for development works and law and order under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath”, the clear verdict for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, where it was in a direct fight with the Samajwadi Party, proved that along with development works and law and order, ‘Hindutva’ remains ‘plus-one’ factor for the party.
In spite of said “disgruntlement among farmers over farm laws, sugarcane procurement dues, etc” the BJP did well in hinterlands, including the Lakhimpur Kheri district.
Adityanath, who successfully turned opponent’s bulldozer jibe into the image of “BulldozerBaba” in his favour, played “development and law and order” cards along with regular reminders of the fulfilled promise of the Ram Temple at Ayodhya temple and the “SP’ firing at ramsevaks”. Numbers, especially from Western UP, prove whether OBC, Dalit or Jat, inside the polling booth it was about the “Hindu” voter.
Adityanath not just battled a resurgent Akhilesh Yadav but also a fair amount of anti-incumbency fed by the second wave of COVID pandemic. Around 42 per cent vote share garnered by the BJP against SP’s improved 32 per cent in UP prove that. This apart, the UP verdict is a clear sign of the emergence of Adityanath within saffron ranks and on his own.
The endorsement of “BulldozerBaba” in India’s most populous and electorally important state in the country, couldgive his political career an altogether different trajectory in future. Breaking a three-decade jinx, the Mahant from Gorakhpur is all set to be the CM for the second consecutive term. Thoughnumber of seats is reduced, the BJP has kept, rather better, vote share since its 2017 polls.
Notably,Uttar Pradesh sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, which is a four-time higher number than Punjab (13), Uttarakhand (5), Manipur (2) and Goa (2) put together.This was also the first time the BJP contested under the combined strength of “Modi-Yogi”.In 2017, Yogi had come into the picture after the elections.In those terms, Adityanath has acquired a status higher than other BJP chief ministers likePramod Sawant in Goa or N Biren Singh in Manipur. In fact, winning back UP, the most populous and electorally crucial state, for the BJP puts him at a higher spot than many central ministers.
Of Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa
Whilethe BJP has been holding the fort in Goa since 2012, this is also the first time a government has been repeated in Uttarakhand. In the beach state it has managed to reach the half-way mark on its own and according to the CM, the Independents are also supporting it.
So far as the hill; state is concerned, though the BJP managed to get two-third majority, CM Pushkar Singh Dhami lost from Khatima, continuing the myth behind Uttarakhand’s “jinxed” CM residence. Apparently, no sitting CM has won an Assembly election in the hill state.In contrast Uttar Pradesh not just gave a clear verdict to the BJP, but also gave Adityanath a thumping victory from Gorakhpur Urban, which he contested for the first time.
Apart from impacting the political future of several leaders, coinciding with the geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine, rising oil prices and an expected rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, the outcome is also expected to shape the BJP’s monetary and other policies in the run-up to the Lok Sabha in 2024. The Markets certainly reacted positively to the results
So far as AAP win in Punjab is concerned, a party insider commented: “Punjab and Delhi (where also AAP is in power) together account for 20 MPs. In Lok Sabha, all seven Delhi MPs are from the BJP. People vote differently in the Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections. Therefore, there is no reason why the BJP should feel threatened from AAP winning Punjab. The first spot in Indian politics has been claimed by PM Modi. The fight is on for the second spot and Arvind Kejriwal is most welcome to fight for it.”
What it indicates for BJP’s opponents like SP
The fact the Samajwadi Party increased vote share, though not good enough to take on the might of the BJP, should sound a warning to the BJP while designing future plans/policies for UP, especially ones related to employment and stray cattle which Akhilesh Yadav turned into a major rallying point against it. UP, which decimated rivals like BSP, Congress and AIMIM, shows that the character of every state is different. Results of West Bengal and Mamata Banerjee have no impact on a Hindi heartland state like UP.
Yadav managed to turn UP into a one-on-one with Adityanath, giving him a close fight. However, gains for the SP and allies largely came at the cost of the BSP and the Congress. While theBSP got around 12.7 per cent vote share, Congress could only manage2.4 per cent in the elections to the 403-member Assembly. Reducing BSP to its worst performance, SP improved vote share to 32 per cent from 21.82 per cent in 2017.
In 2017, BSP won 19 seats and 22.23 per cent vote share.
In Uttarakhand though, Congress’ vote share was much better at 37.9 per cent against BJP’s 44.3 per cent.
