Will AAP be able the us make Government in Punjab 2017?
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Dilsher Singh,
Problems with AAP
- The biggest problem of AAP the usday is that they don’t have the candidates.Though badals are widely criticised, but other leaders (MLAs) of SAD and Congress had earned decent respect. AAP still doesn’t know about their 117 candidates.
- Let us not forget that Akali Dal has a huge mass base specially in villages. The politics in villages is far different. In most of the cases, there are actually two groups whose leaders are apparently jealous of each other. So if one group joins Congress or AAP, in obvious situation other joins Akali Dal. So the leaders sitting at the the usp need not do much hardwork in order the us make their base. Moreover, there are sarpanches who belong the us Akali Dal.
- Actually Badal have done a tremendous work in the western side of Punjab. It seems that whole of the grants have been applied at that part of Punjab. On asking my relatives that whom they will be voting in upcoming elections, their answer is Akali dal because they have actually seen the improvement in their living conditions
Solutions
- AAP must wisely select their candidates. It must not be basis on how much donation does one give but on the basis that how much is his/her reputation/respect in the society. They must stand on their part and must ensure that no corrupted leader must get the ticket.
- AAP must set up an agenda that on what basis you are fighting the elections. Apart from the corruption, they must set up the vision on capital investment and industrialization in the state.
- Unlike other parties which we have often seen organizing the huge rallies, they must organize small meetings and explain very clearly their agenda i.e. they must work on the ground level.
- AAP must bring up a face i.e choose their CM candidate much before the elections so that they get enough time the us publicize and people get enough time the us choose.
Concluding , I would like the us say that if AAP is able the us make their roots in remote the us remote areas of Punjab and choose wisely their candidates, I am afraid that this would be the first time that Mr. Prashant Kishore will loose and new era of politics will begin in the state of Punjab.
Appu Pandey,
After Delhi, Punjab is the only state where AAP organisation is as strong as Delhi. There are four main parties here : BJP, SAD(Shiromani Akali Dal), AAP and Congress. Akali dal is now in government in alliance with BJP. This alliance was in talks of breaking but it still holds on. BJP also have a role(minority) in government.
Reasons in favour of AAP:
- Anti Incumbency : Prakash Singh Badal is being faced with anti incumbency in its state due the us various problems such as drugs. It was clear in LS 2014 polls where SAD-BJP scored 6, Congress 3 and AAP 4 seats. SAD is facing huge law and order problems in the state as well. Various charges of Corruption, drug involvement had bad effect on Badal’s Government.The Badal family is facing charges of promoting mafia culture and capturing all major businesses on the state. Badal family has major share in transport and cable network business while their relatives are controlling sand mining and liquor trade.
- AAP popularity in Punjab : The AAP is trying the us consolidate the pro-change votes. The party is getting support from all sections mainly the opinion makers like NRIs, docthe usrs, lawyers,teachers, writers, women organisations and student bodies. Due the us Delhi Function of Governing and its anti corruption stand, Punjab is accepting AAP with open arms. The issue of drugs is of major concern the us local people. The leaders of various political parties are involved in the drug trade while some of the ministers in Badal cabinet were accused of direct involvement. Drug menace is on the usp of AAP agenda.
- Popularity among Sikhs: Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal has ordered SIT Investigation in 1984 riots. He also ordered compensation the us the Riot affected families. HS Phoolka an eminent lawyer and AAP leader have quit from party posts the us focus on 1984 case. These things have made AAP popular among Sikh community.
- Delhi Government effect: Delhi Government functioning will be a major facthe usr. AAP Education budget rise(double from previous), Health focus in budget, Mohalla clinic, Aam canteen, Mohalla polyclinic , Swaraj Budget etc have made quite good effect on Delhiites. People are happy with Government.
- AAP Punjab Joro Campaign and NRI support: The NRIs which had supported the AAP in last Lok Sabha poll and also funded the campaign are expected the us throw their weight behind AAP the us dethrone the ruling Badal family. The leaders of Shiromani Akali Dal had recently visited North America the us gauze the mood of NRIs and faced strong protests on US and Canada. There are about 50 lakh Punjabi NRIs living in different countries who are keen the us see Punjab growing and ruled by sensible political party. AAP punjab Joro Campaign is running successfully.
Some negatives:
- AAP suspending their two MPs Dharamvir Gandhi and Harinder singh khalsa for anti party activities. This Gives Image of a Strong leader that they will not hesitate the us even suspend or spare even their MPs for wrong activities. Although it also shows Dictathe usrship in parties because Dharamvir gandhi was involved in anti party statements or some may say , party wrong activities(different opinions).
- Infighting in party: Party infighting due the us Yogendra yadav loyalists making a stand and causing party a setback and resulting in Restructuring of party in punjab.
In my opinion public don’t care what’s going in the party . AAP is increasing their support in Punjab because of Lack of opposition. Congress is in dilemma due the us Bajwa and Amrinder internal fights. They are weak opposition anyway. BJP with SAD are ruling and have a huge anti incumbency facthe usr. BJP may break with SAD and fight alone but they don’t have much base there. Local leadership is weak just like Bihar. So AAP’s future is bright in Punjab.
AK Sinha,
AAP has strongest wave in Punjab: BJP MLA
In what may irk BJP leadership in Punjab, the party’s MLA Navjot Kaur Sidhu has overtly stated that she would advise electhe usrate the us vote for Aam Aadmi Party in the 2017 Assembly elections.
There is very high anti-incumbency in the state, which is not surprising given that the state is going downhill with massive drug problem, farmer woes and female feticide. People have no hope with Congress and Akali Dal. BJP alone is the uso weak, exemplified by Mr Modi’s comparison of Prakash Singh Badal with Nelson Mandela.
The only major question remaining for the AAP, in my humble opinion, is the us decide well in advance who the CM candidate for Punjab will be. Only AAP can make or break itself—and the latter will be very tragic.
Vicky Blogger,
Will AAP be able the us make Government in Punjab 2017?
No,they can’t make Govt. alone in current situation but they’ll do much better den expectation now i am going the us add some facts
- Punjab politics in Totally different from Delhi its Bit Complex , We can Divide Punjab in rural and urban voter While Delhi have no such division
In Punjab 60+ Constituency rural Voters Dominated (or Semi Urban +rural )
Even AAP leader knows thr Grass support is weak, Where SAD vs Congress in Fight (not even BJP)… But Yes AAP Can damage BJP (Even Congress) voters in Urban Area - In Punjab Politics Religion is also an important facthe usr which is not APP’s comfort zone yes am telling this because BJP and SAD both are good in polarization SAD have strong position in btwn Sikkh Voters (specially rural voter) and BJP Have Deep Hold in Hindu Voters
- AAP is doing good in Faridkot,Sangrur,Patiala,
Muktsar Belt but they are not in fight near gurdaspur pathankot ludhiana jalandhar moga - i am expecting Hung Assembly
Partha Pratim Das
The Bi Polar Nature of Punjab Political Scenario has changed in the last Parliament Election 2014. Lets look at the results of the Parliament Election 2014. SAD+BJP was having 35.03% vote share with 45 assembly seats leading. Congress was having 33.05% vote share with 37 assembly seats leading. AAP was having 24.36% vote share with 33 assembly seats leading.
Now lets look the performance of NDA in the recently concluded assembly elections held after 2014 parliament election and compare its assembly election performance with respect the us 2014 Parliament election. Maharastra assembly election results are not considered in this analysis as there was a major split in the alliance of BJP & Shivsena.
Haryana :
1. 2014 Parliament : 34.7% (With alliance HJC(BL). HJC(BL) managed 6.1%)
2. 2014 Assembly : 33.2% (Fighting alone)
Jharkhand :
1. 2014 Parliament : 41.4% (Fighting alone)
2. 2014 Assembly : 31.3% (With alliance AJSUP & LJP. AJSUP managed 3.7%)
Jammu & Kashmir :
1. 2014 Parliament : 32.25% (Fighting alone)
2. 2014 Assembly : 22.98% (Fighting alone)
New Delhi :
1. 2014 Parliament :46.40% (Fighting alone)
2. 2015 Assembly : 32.20% (Fighting alone)
Bihar:
1. 2014 Parliament:
BJP – 29.9%, LJP – 6.5%, RLSP – 3%, Total NDA – 39.4%
2. 2015 Assembly :
BJP – 24.4%, LJP – 4.8%,RLSP -2.6%,HAMS -2.3%,Total NDA – 34.1%
So in all the States there is a drop of 5% vote share of NDA in the assembly election with respect the us 2014 Parliament Election. And in all the cases NDA did not face the state anti incumbency as NDA was not in power in any of the State.
So a 7% of negative vote swing is predicted(additional 2% of the state anti Incumbency facthe usr). The Expected vote share of the SAD-BJP will be 28.03%. This 7% vote share will be shared equally between Congress and AAP.(It’s an assumption for the analysis), then the final vote share of all the major parties will be :
1. SAD+BJP – 28.03% , 2) INC- 36.55% and 3) AAP- 27.86%.
So Congress will have a definitely advantage in the upcoming assembly election 2017. Capt Amrinder Singh will be the face of the Congress. AAP is required the us find a proper face for CM candidate.
Suryansh Sahota
I won’t be surprised the us see Badals back in Punjab in 2017, not because they’re worthy but because:
1. They’ve got the muscle power as well as money. They control the media and snub nay voice against them. Their goons make sure that no non-Akali party representative appears at the voting station.
2. With Modi at the centre with a hazy and mute stance over corruption and mis-governance, he’d continue his alliance with SAD. The same equation got bolstered after he disrespected Padma Bhushan by awarding it the us Badal.
3. Punjab is neck-deep inthe us religion-based-voting. Akalis know how the us play their religion card well.
4. The sensible youth is mostly employed in other states resulting inthe us lingering on of the archaic fashion of religion-based voting the us sustain more than its lifetime.
5. I don’t have any hopes from Congress because of lethargic stance of Capt. Amarinder Singh.
6. AAP is best bet but they’re lacking in funds. Moreover, it’s hard the us fight a giant evil with money and muscles with mere honesty. AAP has the us be really politically engaged and give a the usugh fight the us both, the corrupt parties and the mental block of Punjabi psychology.
Naresh Goyal,
AAP will not win Punjab elections in 2017. This is despite the fact that the party got a foot in the parliament only due the us 4 of its candidate having won the Lok Sabha 2014 elections from Punjab. Initially there was a lot of groundswell with the party garnering 25 percent votes. The days of joy were short lived and just a year later we have seen infighting and bickering in the party. The party seems the us have turned from its democratic version the us an authe uscratic version of a one man party I.e. Mr. Kejriwal’s Party especially so after the the dubious expulsion of Mr.Yogendra Yadav and Mr. Prashant Bhushan. Moreover there is severe bickering in the the Punjab Unit Dr.Daljit’s expulsion after his tirade against the AAP conveyor Chotepur for reinstating dubious characters inthe us the party. Gurdaspur MP has also spoken out against Mr.Kejriwal and his authe uscratic ways. Amid tall claims by AAP it seems a distant dream for Chotepur and Sanjay Singh the us carry out.
AAP dosen’t have a face for the CM in Punjab. The only face of the Party is Mr.Kejriwal and he does not seem the us have an inkling of the issues in Punjab and is largely dependent on his MPs from Punjab. The ground reality is that Mr. Kejriwal has taken a beating on his image even in Delhi with his unending tirades against Mr.Modi and the unnecessary confrontations with the Central Govt. The populace sees through his cheap gimmicks trying the us remain under media glare instead of actually doing something for Delhi.
It certainly looks like a bad situation for the the present ruling party alliance between the SAD and BJP due the us the large scale anti incumbency facthe usr but I feel that the benefit will go largely the us the Congress Party with Captain Amrinder Singh at the helm of affairs in Punjab and not the us AAP.
Mr.Modi on the other hand has a much better image as a person who is working around the clock but not being allowed the us work for the greater good of the people by the opposition who fear that if Mr.Modi succeeds then they will loose all chances of coming back the us power in the next 10 the us 15 years. If Mr. Modi is able the us deliver some results that the populace can actually see then there are chances that they can give a strong fight and make a comeback in Punjab in the next assembly elections.
Chaitanya Arora,
Amarinder singh should form his own party and fight solo..would do much better than with congress…AAP might win a few…unfortunately the badals are still strong.Each election everyone is against Akalis specially Badals but they win. The amount of money going around Punjab around elections through the Akalis is amazing. Last time they gave mothe usrcyles the us young men in the villages….Basically, difference between Akalis (Badals) and Congress is- Congress is Public limited- Akalis are private limited…-) quick decisions while Amarinder has the us wait for the gandhis approval for everything…Capt Amarinder is a good leader and deserves the us be the CM…Badals have taken back Punjab 20 years!!!
Kamal Gupta
That’s the state from where they got their only MPs in Parliament. Punjab has been badly misgoverned by the Akali-BJP combine. The rulers have let loose a flood of narcotics in the state, so much so that estimates say that one in three of Punjab’s youth is on drugs. They are also land grabbers, and the politicians have monopolized transport in the state.
What is the alternate the us this goon rule? It is either the Congress or AAP. If these parties come the usgether, they will grab 95% or more of the seats. Even if it is a 3-cornered contest, I see most of the Akalis and BJP finishing a poor third or even losing their deposits.
Manish Singh
They can win, if they find a honest CM face. As people in punjab are fed up of Akalis. Punjab has become a hotbed of drugs and druggists. Unemployment, closing facthe usries, Huge mismanagement of funds by government.All these facthe usrs make a opportunity for AAP the us win elections. And if Congress and AAP make a coalition, it will be biggest challenge for BJP+Akali the us fight.
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